This post is part of a Sublime collection: Future Machines

Ero

How do we get to flying cars?

Cover Image for How do we get to flying cars?

This post came about as I was catching up with a friend this morning and we ended up discussing ways the world might be different in the near future.

What does the world look like if current AI trends hold and it has a meaningful positive effect on society? We get flying cars. But I don't think technology is the limiter, it's a regulatory/societal problem.

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If I wanted to journey coast-to-coast across the US 200 years ago, I would set off on foot or horse and use a map to choose a route that is optimal for speed, feeding, lodging, and safety. That trip would take over 4 months and I would be making decisions about the trip the entire time.1 Today, I can book a flight and effectively hop from where I am to where I want to go. In fact, I can get to any reasonable destination in the world within 24 hours today and the biggest decision I have to make is booking the trip.

In my previous post, I talked about how driving involves a lot of decision-making. And human decision-making while driving is dependent on a lot of factors that are not immediately apparent in that moment. This makes self-driving cars safer than human-piloted cars.

I can decide on a whim to go somewhere in San Francisco and the most consequential decision I have to make is pushing the button to request the car. I can spend my time on whatever I want while remaining perfectly safe.2

It works well for distances under an hour.

At the moment, I can't have the car take me to LA for very valid regulatory and societal reasons.3 The fastest and most convenient options are flying and driving, respectively. Both still require significant decision-making.4

Drones have been a thing for a while now. So why can't I have both the convenience of personal mobility in an autonomous vehicle and the time savings of "frictionless" air travel?

Different arena, different rules

Driving requires you to consider things happening ahead, behind, and to either side of you in your decision-making. Flying requires above and below in addition to that.

Also, the mental model for moving on a solid surface is different than what is required when moving in a frictionless fluid (the air).

What are other people doing?

Once you pass the licensing test in the US, you are licensed for life. There is no requirement to retest every time you have to renew your license or when your eyesight starts to fade.5

Law enforcement is the primary way we regulate unsafe driving. You can get your license suspended if you do enough dangerous things on the road within a short period... or after the harm is already done. I don't think it makes a lot of sense, but that's what it is. The other control is raising insurance premiums after unsafe behavior is reported by law enforcement. Some insurance companies have taken it a step further by measuring driving data from your car without your knowledge. This is terrible.

The rules are, thankfully, different for flying and the statistics reflect that.

So when do we get flying cars?

When it becomes abnormal to drive a car in most cities and highways unless you're a licensed professional or when licensing includes more frequent testing. And since there are no lines in the sky, they have to be mostly autonomous.

Only then will I be comfortable with a car flying by my window.

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Thanks to Majid Musa for the conversation that led to this post.

Footnotes

  1. This assumes 2570 miles from Central Park, NYC to Golden Gate Park, SF. 20 miles covered per day, favorable weather, minimal elevation changes (the rocky and appalachian mountain ranges are in the way), and no safety issues along the way. ↩

  2. A nice thread on Waymo that captures more of the nuance of the experience. ↩

  3. At the moment, cities are still evaluating the safety of autonomous driving systems. They also have to consider the practical consequences of having a bunch of robots loose on the street. Then there's the societal issue of what happens when self-driving systems become cheaper than human-piloted systems, what do all the people employed in transport work do for a living? ↩

  4. I can pick a spot on the globe and push a button on an airline booking site and be there in less than 24 hours. Practically though, flying requires me to decide how I want to get to the airport -- walk, drive, bus, or train. I still have to worry about TSA (which means i have to get there early). And then I need to board early to find space for my carry on. But unless I'm an extremely wealthy person, I still have to share the space with other passengers. Driving requires a lot of decision-making while I'm in cities and less on the highway (cruise control). But it's still the most convenient since I can do whatever I want like playing music out loud or talking on the phone (while paying attention to the road). ↩

  5. I didn't need to wear glasses when I got my first US license. My eyesight wasn't great but I could see well enough to pass the vision test. Fast forward to 2022 when I finally went to get a Texas license. It was a pretty straightforward procedure. Go to the Texas Department of Public Safety, hand over my license from Oklahoma, fill out some forms, and get my picture taken. Or so I thought... When it was time to take my picture, the lady attending asked if I want to take my glasses off. I said sure. Then she asked if I needed them to drive. I did -- that's why I had them on at the appointment. Then she asked me to redo the vision test and I failed. And thusly, my license got a prescription lens endorsement added to it... On the plus side, I now have prescription sunglasses. One day a cop pulled me over. "Cool shades... Do you have contacts on under?" "No." I hand him the sunglasses and he tries them on. "Oh." ↩